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In English | Excelling in Forecasting

Learn the techniques on how to make a "good" forecast in cooperation with ZS

Date

Tuesday, September 28th, 2021 & Wednesday, September 29th, 2021

Language

English

Time

09.00 – about 17.30

Location

Pädagogische Hochschule Zürich,
Lagerstrasse 2, 8090 Zürich

Learning objectives

  • Learn the basics of forecasting and key components on how to make a ‘good’ forecast
  • How forecasting drives decision making and how to impact it
  • Present the developed forecast effectively in a group setting
  • Be comfortable in looking at a completely new disease area and developing a forecast from scratch
  • Interpreting market research results to convert to assumptions for forecasting
  • Key data sources for various assumptions in a forecast
  • Various trending techniques for projection based forecasting
  • Forecasting for specialty therapeutics – patient flow
  • The key upcoming trends in forecasting

Structure of content

Forecasting – How to make good forecasts

    • The Inaccuracy of Forecasting
    • Forecasting in the Pharmaceutical Industry

Forecasting – Components of forecasting and Epidemiology

    • Selecting the right forecasting method
    • Decision-driven forecasting
    • How to validate and present a forecast
    • Prevalence based vs. Incidence based approach

Patient Based – Market Shares

    • Analog analysis for uptake shape
    • Determining peak share of product and interpreting MR results
    • Share definition based on order of entry

Patient Based – Market Events and Conversions

    • External and internal market events
    • Impact of loss of exclusivity
    • Compliance vs. persistence – what’s the difference?
    • Converting patients numbers into revenue

In-Market Forecasting

    • Generating Baseline Trends based on historicals
    • Types of trending functions available and usage
    • Applying Events on top of trending

In-Market Forecasting

    • Reconciliating a projection based forecast
    • Conversions to revenue
    • Parallel Import correction

Specialty Therapeutics

    • How to deal with sophisticated treatment algorithm?
    • Finalizing approach for specialty therapeutic
    • Sourcing data based on chosen approach

Key Trends in forecasting and Wrap-Up

    • Dealing with uncertainty in a forecast
    • What level of forecasting centralization is desired?
    • Automation in forecasting
    • Next generation forecasting platform

Target groups

  • Marketeers: Product Managers, Brand Managers
  • Business Development Manager
  • Business Analytics Manager
  • Finance Manager

Seminar leader

Prateek Mittal

Consultant & leader of the EU Forecasting team

ZS Associates Frankfurt

 

Exercises

General Forecasting:

  • What are the components of a good forecast
  • When to use which forecasting methodology
  • What assumptions can sources based on judgement, primary research and secondary data
  • Case Study: Introduction to the TA for a case study for pipeline forecasting
  • What are the key considerations while presenting a forecast
  • Case Study: Situation, complication and key questions based on the TA summary and request for the forecasters

Epidemiology, Shares and Conversions

  • Case Study: Figuring out the epidemiology structure and assumptions
  • What does a typical adoption curve look like?
  • Case Study: Build shares based on scores and weights
  • What are some examples of market events in a forecast
  • Case Study: Modeling new product entry and loss of exclusivity
  • Case Study: Present the developed forecasts to the group

In-Market Forecasting:

  • Where can in-market forecasting be used?
  • Predict which forecasting trend to use
  • Case Study: Develop the trends for a forecast based on historical data
  • Case Study: Apply relative and absolute market events
  • Case Study: Convert the patients into units and calibrate with actuals
  • Case Study: Present the developed forecasts to the group

Other: Any other questions from the attendees are welcome

General Information

Seminar fee per person (excl. VAT)

  • CHF 2’100.00   for shqa members
  • CHF 2’900.00   for non-members

Included in these fees are: seminar documents, list of participants, confirmation of participation, lunch, drinks/catering during breaks

Cancellation conditions

The cancellation fee is:

  • up to 60 calendar days before the seminar begins: CHF 150 cancellation/rebooking fee
  • up to 59 calendar days before the seminar begins: 30 % of the seminar fee
  • up to 31 calendar days before the seminar begins: 50 % of the seminar fee
  • up to 15 calendar days prior to the seminar: 100% of the seminar fee

Cancellations are only valid in written form.
In case of non-attendance the whole seminar fee is due.
A replacement for participants will be accepted (administration fee CHF 150.-).

Number of participants

The number of participants is limited.
Registrations will be considered in the order in which they are received.

Quality/training credits

The seminar is based on learning objectives. 6.5 SwAPP/SGPM credits per day.

Location

Pädagogische Hochschule Zürich,
Lagerstrasse 2, 8090 Zürich

5 minutes‘ walk from Zurich main station (exit Europaallee/Sihlpost, access via stairs to Campusplatz)

Nearest parking facilities:

  • City Parking Gessnerallee, Gessnerallee 14, 8001 Zürich
  • City Parkhaus AG, Löwenstrasse 61, 8001 Zürich
  • Parkhaus Hauptbahnhof, Sihlquai 41, 8005 Zürich

Your contact person

Stephanie Deuber / Nina Needré, +41 41 500 07 80, academy@shqa.ch



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