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In English | Excelling in Forecasting

Learn the techniques on how to make a "good" forecast in cooperation with ZS


Tuesday, September 28th, 2021 & Wednesday, September 29th, 2021




09.00 – about 17.30


Pädagogische Hochschule Zürich,
Lagerstrasse 2, 8090 Zürich

Learning objectives

  • Learn the basics of forecasting and key components on how to make a ‘good’ forecast
  • How forecasting drives decision making and how to impact it
  • Present the developed forecast effectively in a group setting
  • Be comfortable in looking at a completely new disease area and developing a forecast from scratch
  • Interpreting market research results to convert to assumptions for forecasting
  • Key data sources for various assumptions in a forecast
  • Various trending techniques for projection based forecasting
  • Forecasting for specialty therapeutics – patient flow
  • The key upcoming trends in forecasting

Structure of content

Forecasting – How to make good forecasts

    • The Inaccuracy of Forecasting
    • Forecasting in the Pharmaceutical Industry

Forecasting – Components of forecasting and Epidemiology

    • Selecting the right forecasting method
    • Decision-driven forecasting
    • How to validate and present a forecast
    • Prevalence based vs. Incidence based approach

Patient Based – Market Shares

    • Analog analysis for uptake shape
    • Determining peak share of product and interpreting MR results
    • Share definition based on order of entry

Patient Based – Market Events and Conversions

    • External and internal market events
    • Impact of loss of exclusivity
    • Compliance vs. persistence – what’s the difference?
    • Converting patients numbers into revenue

In-Market Forecasting

    • Generating Baseline Trends based on historicals
    • Types of trending functions available and usage
    • Applying Events on top of trending

In-Market Forecasting

    • Reconciliating a projection based forecast
    • Conversions to revenue
    • Parallel Import correction

Specialty Therapeutics

    • How to deal with sophisticated treatment algorithm?
    • Finalizing approach for specialty therapeutic
    • Sourcing data based on chosen approach

Key Trends in forecasting and Wrap-Up

    • Dealing with uncertainty in a forecast
    • What level of forecasting centralization is desired?
    • Automation in forecasting
    • Next generation forecasting platform

Target groups

  • Marketeers: Product Managers, Brand Managers
  • Business Development Manager
  • Business Analytics Manager
  • Finance Manager

Seminar leader

Prateek Mittal

Consultant & leader of the EU Forecasting team

ZS Associates Frankfurt



General Forecasting:

  • What are the components of a good forecast
  • When to use which forecasting methodology
  • What assumptions can sources based on judgement, primary research and secondary data
  • Case Study: Introduction to the TA for a case study for pipeline forecasting
  • What are the key considerations while presenting a forecast
  • Case Study: Situation, complication and key questions based on the TA summary and request for the forecasters

Epidemiology, Shares and Conversions

  • Case Study: Figuring out the epidemiology structure and assumptions
  • What does a typical adoption curve look like?
  • Case Study: Build shares based on scores and weights
  • What are some examples of market events in a forecast
  • Case Study: Modeling new product entry and loss of exclusivity
  • Case Study: Present the developed forecasts to the group

In-Market Forecasting:

  • Where can in-market forecasting be used?
  • Predict which forecasting trend to use
  • Case Study: Develop the trends for a forecast based on historical data
  • Case Study: Apply relative and absolute market events
  • Case Study: Convert the patients into units and calibrate with actuals
  • Case Study: Present the developed forecasts to the group

Other: Any other questions from the attendees are welcome

General Information

Seminar fee per person (excl. VAT)

  • CHF 2’100.00   for shqa members
  • CHF 2’900.00   for non-members

Included in these fees are: seminar documents, list of participants, confirmation of participation, lunch, drinks/catering during breaks

Cancellation conditions

The cancellation fee is:
  • up to 60 calendar days before the start of the seminar: free of charge
  • up to 59 calendar days before the start of the seminar: 30 % of the seminar fee
  • up to 31 calendar days before the start of the seminar: 50 % of the seminar fee
  • up to 15 calendar days before the start of the seminar: 100 % of the seminar fee
Substitutions for participants who are unable to attend as well as rebookings are possible. An administration fee of CHF 150 will be charged.
Cancellations are only valid in written form.
In the event of non-attendance, the entire seminar fee is due.

Number of participants

The number of participants is limited.
Registrations will be considered in the order in which they are received.

Quality/training credits

The seminar is based on learning objectives. 6.5 SwAPP/SGPM credits per day.


Pädagogische Hochschule Zürich,
Lagerstrasse 2, 8090 Zürich

5 minutes‘ walk from Zurich main station (exit Europaallee/Sihlpost, access via stairs to Campusplatz)

Nearest parking facilities:

  • City Parking Gessnerallee, Gessnerallee 14, 8001 Zürich
  • City Parkhaus AG, Löwenstrasse 61, 8001 Zürich
  • Parkhaus Hauptbahnhof, Sihlquai 41, 8005 Zürich

Your contact person

Stephanie Deuber / Nina Needré, +41 41 500 07 80, academy@shqa.ch

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