Date
Wednesday, April 28th, 2021 & Thursday, April 29th, 2021
Language
English
Time
09.00 – about 17.30
Location
Pädagogische Hochschule Zürich,
Lagerstrasse 2, 8090 Zürich
Learning objectives
We expect the attendees to know the following post this seminar:
- Learn the basics of forecasting and key components on how to make a ‘good’ forecast
- How forecasting drives decision making and how to impact it
- Present the developed forecast effectively in a group setting
- Be comfortable in looking at a completely new disease area and developing a forecast from scratch
- Interpreting market research results to convert to assumptions for forecasting
- Key data sources for various assumptions in a forecast
- Various trending techniques for projection based forecasting
- Forecasting for specialty therapeutics – patient flow
- The key upcoming trends in forecasting
Structure of content
Day 1
Forecasting – How to make good forecasts
- The Inaccuracy of Forecasting
- Forecasting in the Pharmaceutical Industry
Forecasting – Components of forecasting and Epidemiology
- Selecting the right forecasting method
- Decision-driven forecasting
- How to validate and present a forecast
- Prevalence based vs. Incidence based approach
Patient Based – Market Shares
- Analog analysis for uptake shape
- Determining peak share of product and interpreting MR results
- Share definition based on order of entry
Patient Based – Market Events and Conversions
- External and internal market events
- Impact of loss of exclusivity
- Compliance vs. persistence – what’s the difference?
- Converting patients numbers into revenue
Day 2
In-Market Forecasting
- Generating Baseline Trends based on historicals
- Types of trending functions available and usage
- Applying Events on top of trending
In-Market Forecasting
- Reconciliating a projection based forecast
- Conversions to revenue
- Parallel Import correction
Specialty Therapeutics
- How to deal with sophisticated treatment algorithm?
- Finalizing approach for specialty therapeutic
- Sourcing data based on chosen approach
Key Trends in forecasting and Wrap-Up
- Dealing with uncertainty in a forecast
- What level of forecasting centralization is desired?
- Automation in forecasting
- Next generation forecasting platform
Target groups
- Marketeers: Product Managers, Brand Managers
- Business Development Manager
- Business Analytics Manager
- Finance Manager
Seminar leader
Prateek Mittal
Consultant & leader of the EU Forecasting team
ZS Associates Frankfurt
Exercises
General Forecasting:
- What are the components of a good forecast
- When to use which forecasting methodology
- What assumptions can sources based on judgement, primary research and secondary data
- Case Study: Introduction to the TA for a case study for pipeline forecasting
- What are the key considerations while presenting a forecast
- Case Study: Situation, complication and key questions based on the TA summary and request for the forecasters
Epidemiology, Shares and Conversions
- Case Study: Figuring out the epidemiology structure and assumptions
- What does a typical adoption curve look like?
- Case Study: Build shares based on scores and weights
- What are some examples of market events in a forecast
- Case Study: Modeling new product entry and loss of exclusivity
- Case Study: Present the developed forecasts to the group
In-Market Forecasting:
- Where can in-market forecasting be used?
- Predict which forecasting trend to use
- Case Study: Develop the trends for a forecast based on historical data
- Case Study: Apply relative and absolute market events
- Case Study: Convert the patients into units and calibrate with actuals
- Case Study: Present the developed forecasts to the group
Other: Any other questions from the attendees are welcome
General Information
Seminar fee per person for one seminar day (excl. VAT)
- CHF 2’100.00 for shqa members
- CHF 2’900.00 for non-members
Included in these fees are: seminar documents, list of participants, confirmation of participation, lunch, drinks/catering during breaks
Cancellation conditions
The cancellation fee is:
- up to 60 calendar days before the seminar begins: CHF 150 cancellation/rebooking fee
- up to 59 calendar days before the seminar begins: 30 % of the seminar fee
- up to 31 calendar days before the seminar begins: 50 % of the seminar fee
- up to 15 calendar days prior to the seminar: 100% of the seminar fee
Cancellations are only valid in written form.
In case of non-attendance the whole seminar fee is due.
A replacement for participants will be accepted (administration fee CHF 150.-).
Number of participants
The number of participants is limited.
Registrations will be considered in the order in which they are received.
Quality/training credits
The seminar is based on learning objectives. 6.5 SwAPP/SGPM credits per day.
Location
Pädagogische Hochschule Zürich,
Lagerstrasse 2, 8090 Zürich
5 minutes‘ walk from Zurich main station (exit Europaallee/Sihlpost, access via stairs to Campusplatz)
Nearest parking facilities:
- City Parking Gessnerallee, Gessnerallee 14, 8001 Zürich
- City Parkhaus AG, Löwenstrasse 61, 8001 Zürich
- Parkhaus Hauptbahnhof, Sihlquai 41, 8005 Zürich
Your contact person
Stephanie Deuber / Nina Needré, +41 41 500 07 80, academy@shqa.ch